Why Obama will Beat Mccain in 08

Photo by Joshua Wanyama of African Path

originally posted on Benin's blog on barackobama.com

This is my analysis of why Obama will win in 08...

General Conditions That Don't Favor Mccain

• The republican scandals of late have rocked the party [1,2]

• The weakened economy, which is perceived to be bad because of Bush's policies [3]

• Americans are tired of being viewed as the enemy

• We have had a two term republican president

• Democrats are taking back congress-even in republican territory [4]

• Healthcare. Our system is embarrasing, there are so many poorer nations with much better healthcare

The republicans and Mccain seem to be perceived as on the wrong side of these issues.

Mccain's Weaknesses

• Mccain does not appeal to the current base of his party-Evangelicals [5]

• Mccain is not charismatic
• He doesn't understand the economy
• It will be difficult to shed the perception of him being outdated

Obama's strengths

• 50 plus state organization

• Massive Financial Backing

• Obama is Charismatic and energizing-a huge contrast from Mccain [6]

• The young voters (the x factor)

• Momentum-Obama just came out of a tough primary is much stronger because of it
• There is heavy speculation that he will pick up as much as 40% the evangelical vote

Notes:

1 Keating 5 scandal

2 Lobbyist scandal

3 Economic similarity with Bush

4 Democrats taking back congress in republican country

5 Evangelical vote up for grabs

6 With the general election season started contrasts are huge